Despite the high expectations of many traders and investors, Ethereum’s price action in recent months has fallen short. The cryptocurrency is currently stuck in a bearish trend, with its price down by 23% over a 30-day period. This disappointing performance comes as a surprise to those who were hopeful for a bullish surge following the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs. However, a closer look at the technical analysis reveals that Ethereum’s current price behavior could be following a familiar pattern from the past.
Comparing 2024 to 2016
Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has been conducting an ongoing analysis of Ethereum’s price movements, noting striking similarities between 2024 and 2016. The monthly candlestick chart shows a pattern of repetition, with Ethereum closing monthly candlesticks in the same manner as it did in 2016 for eight consecutive months. This consistency suggests that Ethereum’s current price action might not be as unexpected as it initially seems.
Looking back at 2016, Ethereum experienced a massive 19,000% rally, reaching a price of $1,590 for the first time. If Ethereum continues to follow the 2016 pattern, investors could see a green monthly close in September, followed by three bearish months from October to December. If this repetitive price action persists after December 2024, Ethereum could potentially go on a significant price rally surpassing its current all-time high. This would bring relief to Ethereum bulls eagerly awaiting profitability.
As of the latest data, Ethereum is trading at $2,445, showing a decline of 10.85% over the past week and 23% over the past month. The cryptocurrency is currently hovering around a critical support level, specifically at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, just above the $2,400 mark. A strong bounce from this support level could indicate the beginning of an upward trend, potentially leading to a close above its monthly open by the end of September. This could pave the way for Ethereum to surge above $3,000, $4,000, and even $5,000 in the near future.
While Ethereum’s recent price action may have fallen short of expectations, a closer analysis reveals a potential correlation with its past performance in 2016. By looking at historical patterns and technical indicators, investors can gain valuable insights into Ethereum’s future price movements. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, it is crucial for traders to stay informed and adapt to changing trends to make well-informed decisions. With Ethereum poised at a critical support level, the coming months could prove to be pivotal in determining its trajectory towards new price highs.
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